Ngo-2023, abantu abayi-153 babulawa ngumkhuhlane wedengue eKerala, ababalelwa kwi-32% yokusweleka kwedengue eIndiya. I-Bihar lilizwe elinelona nani lesibini liphezulu lokusweleka kwedengue, kwaye kubikwe kuphela abantu abangama-74 ababhubhileyo, ngaphantsi kwesiqingatha senani laseKerala. Kunyaka ophelileyo, isazi ngemozulu uRoxy Mathew Call, owayesebenza kwimodeli yokuqhambuka kwesifo sedengue, waya kutshintsho lwemozulu lwaseKerala kunye negosa lezempilo ecela inkxaso-mali kule projekthi. Iqela lakhe kwi-Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) liye laphuhlisa imodeli efanayo yePune. UGqr Khil, isazi ngemozulu kwiZiko laseIndiya leTropical Meteorology (IITM), uthe, "Oku kuya kuba luncedo kakhulu kwisebe lezempilo laseKerala njengoko kuya kunceda ekubekeni iliso ngononophelo kunye nokuthatha amanyathelo okuthintela ukuvela kwezifo." igosa eliyintloko.
Yonke into awayeyinikwe yayiziidilesi ze-imeyile ezisemthethweni zoMlawuli wezeMpilo kaRhulumente kunye noSekela Mlawuli wezeMpilo kaRhulumente. Ngaphandle kwee-imeyile zesikhumbuzo kunye nemiyalezo ebhaliweyo, akukho datha inikezelweyo.
Oku kuyasebenza nakwidatha yemvula. “Ngokuqwalaselwa okuchanekileyo, uqikelelo oluchanekileyo, izilumkiso ezifanelekileyo kunye nemigaqo-nkqubo efanelekileyo, abantu abaninzi banokusindiswa,” utshilo uGqr Cole, ofumene iwonga lenzululwazi liphezulu laseIndiya kulo nyaka, imbasa yeVigyan Yuva Shanti Swarup Bhatnagar Geologist. Wanikela intetho enesihloko esithi 'Imozulu: Yintoni exhomekeke kwi-balance' kwi-Manorama Conclave e-Thiruvananthapuram ngoLwesihlanu.
UGqr Cole uthe ngenxa yokutshintsha kwemozulu, iiGhats zaseNtshona kunye noLwandle lwaseArabia macala omabini eKerala ziye zafana needemon kunye neelwandle. “Imozulu ayitshintshi nje kuphela, iyatshintsha ngokukhawuleza,” utshilo. Ekuphela kwesisombululo, wathi, kukwenza i-eco-friendly Kerala. “Kufuneka sigxininise kwinqanaba le-panchayat. Iindlela, izikolo, izindlu, ezinye iindawo kunye nomhlaba wokulima kufuneka ulungelelaniswe nokutshintsha kwemozulu,” utshilo.
Okokuqala, wathi, iKerala kufuneka yenze inethiwekhi eshinyeneyo nesebenzayo yokubeka iliso kwimozulu. NgoJulayi 30, usuku lokudilika komhlaba waseWayanad, iSebe leMeteorological yaseIndiya (IMD) kunye noGunyaziwe woLawulo lweNtlekele waseKerala (KSDMA) bakhuphe iimephu ezimbini ezahlukeneyo zokulinganisa imvula. Ngokutsho kwemephu ye-KSDMA, i-Wayanad ifumene imvula enkulu kakhulu (ngaphezu kwe-115mm) kunye nemvula enkulu ngoJulayi 30, nangona kunjalo, i-IMD inika ukufundwa okune okuhlukeneyo kweWayanad: imvula enkulu, imvula enkulu, imvula ephakathi kunye nemvula elula;
Ngokwemephu ye-IMD, uninzi lwezithili zaseThiruvananthapuram naseKollam zifumene imvula encinci ukuya kwelula, kodwa i-KSDMA inike ingxelo yokuba ezi zithili zibini zafumana imvula ephakathi. "Asikwazi ukunyamezela loo nto kule mihla. Kufuneka senze inethiwekhi edibeneyo yokubeka iliso yemozulu eKerala ukuqonda ngokuchanekileyo nokuqikelela imozulu, "kusho uDkt Kohl. “Le datha kufuneka ifumaneke esidlangalaleni,” utshilo.
EKerala kukho isikolo qho ngeekhilomitha ezi-3. Ezi zikolo zinokuxhotyiswa ngezixhobo zokulawula imozulu. “Isikolo ngasinye sinokuxhotyiswa ngeegeyiji zemvula kunye neethemomitha zokulinganisa ubushushu.” Ngo-2018, esinye isikolo sabeka esweni imvula namanqanaba amanzi kuMlambo iMeenachil saza sasindisa iintsapho ezingama-60 ngaphantsi komlambo ngokuqikelela izikhukhula,” utshilo.
Ngokukwanjalo, izikolo zinokunikwa amandla elanga kwaye zibe namatanki okubamba amanzi emvula. “Ngale ndlela, abafundi abazukwazi nje ngotshintsho lwemozulu, kodwa baya kululungiselela,” utshilo. Idatha yabo iya kuba yinxalenye yenethiwekhi yokubeka iliso.
Nangona kunjalo, uqikelelo lwezantyalantyala zezandyondyo zemvula kunye nokudilika komhlaba kufuna ulungelelwaniso nentsebenziswano yamasebe aliqela, anjengegeology kunye nehydrology, ukwenza imifuziselo. “Sinokukwenza oku,” watsho.
Rhoqo kwishumi leminyaka, iimitha ezili-17 zomhlaba ziyalahleka. UGqr Cole weZiko laseIndiya leMeteorology yeTropiki uthe amaqondo olwandle anyuke ngeemilimitha ezi-3 ngonyaka ukusukela ngo-1980, okanye iisentimitha ezi-3 kwishumi leminyaka. Wathi nangona kubonakala kuncinci, ukuba ithambeka lingama-0.1 degrees nje, i-17 yeemitha zomhlaba iya kukhukuliseka. “Libali elidala elifanayo.Ngo-2050, amaqondo olwandle aya kunyuka ngeemilimitha ezi-5 ngonyaka,” utshilo.
Ngokufanayo, ukususela ngowe-1980, inani leenkanyamba liye landa ngama-50 ekhulwini yaye ixesha lazo liye landa ngama-80 ekhulwini. Ngeli xesha, isixa semvula egqithisileyo iphindwe kathathu. Uthe ngo-2050, imvula iza kunyuka nge-10% kwisidanga ngasinye sokunyuka kobushushu.
Impembelelo yoTshintsho lokuSetyenziswa koMhlaba Uphononongo kwi-Trivandrum's Urban Heat Island (UHI) (igama elisetyenziswa ukuchaza iindawo zasezidolophini ezifudumeleyo kuneendawo zasemaphandleni) lufumanise ukuba amaqondo obushushu kwiindawo ezakhiweyo okanye kumahlathi akhoyo anganyuka aye kuma-30. 82 degrees celcius xa kuthelekiswa nama-25.92 degrees celcius. ngo-1988 - ukutsiba phantse 5 degrees kwiminyaka 34.
Uphononongo oluvezwe nguDkt Cole lubonise ukuba kwiindawo ezivulekileyo izinga lokushisa liya kunyuka ukusuka kwi-25.92 degrees Celsius ngo-1988 ukuya kwi-26.8 degrees Celsius ngo-2022. Kwiindawo ezinohlaza, amaqondo okushisa anyuka ukusuka kwi-26.61 degrees Celsius ukuya kwi-30.82 degrees Celsius ngo-2022, ukutsiba kwe-4.21 degrees.
Ubushushu bamanzi bubhalwe kwi-25.21 degrees Celsius, ngaphantsi kancinci kune-25.66 degrees Celsius ebhalwe ngo-1988, iqondo lokushisa lalingama-24.33 degrees Celsius;
UGqr Cole uthe amaqondo obushushu aphezulu naphantsi kwisiqithi sobushushu sekomkhulu nawo anyuke ngokuthe chu ngeli xesha. “Olo tshintsho kusetyenziso lomhlaba lunokwenza umhlaba ube sesichengeni sokudilika komhlaba kunye nezikhukhula,” utshilo.
UGqr Cole uthe ukujongana nokutshintsha kwemozulu kufuna isicwangciso esinamacala amabini: ukunciphisa kunye nokulungelelanisa. "Ukunciphisa utshintsho lwemozulu ngoku kungaphaya kwamandla ethu. Oku kufuneka kwenziwe kwinqanaba lehlabathi. I-Kerala kufuneka igxininise ukulungelelaniswa. I-KSDMA ichonge iindawo ezishushu. Ukubonelela ngezixhobo zokulawula imozulu kwi-panchayat nganye," watsho.
Ixesha lokuposa: Sep-23-2024