Ngowama-2023, abantu abali-153 bafa ngenxa yomkhuhlane wedengue eKerala, nto leyo ethetha ukuba yi-32% yabantu abafa ngenxa yomkhuhlane wedengue eIndiya. IBihar lelona lizwe linenani lesibini eliphezulu labantu abafa ngenxa yomkhuhlane wedengue, apho kuxelwe ukufa kwabantu abangama-74 kuphela, ngaphantsi kwesiqingatha senani laseKerala. Kunyaka ophelileyo, isazinzulu semozulu uRoxy Mathew Call, owayesebenza kwimodeli yokuqikelela ubhubhane wedengue, waya kwigosa eliphezulu laseKerala elijongene notshintsho lwemozulu kunye nezempilo ecela inkxaso-mali yale projekthi. Iqela lakhe kwi-Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) lenze imodeli efanayo yePune. UGqr. Khil, isazinzulu semozulu kwi-Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), uthe, “Oku kuya kuba luncedo kakhulu kwisebe lezempilo laseKerala njengoko kuya kunceda ekujongeni ngenyameko nasekuthatheni amanyathelo okuthintela ukwenzeka kwezifo.”
Konke akunikwayo yayiziidilesi ze-imeyile ezisemthethweni zoMlawuli wezeMpilo yoLuntu kunye noSekela Mlawuli wezeMpilo yoLuntu. Nangona ii-imeyile ezikhumbuzayo kunye nemiyalezo ebhaliweyo, akukho datha inikezelweyo.
Oku kuyasebenza nakwidatha yemvula. “Ngokuqwalasela ngokuchanekileyo, uqikelelo oluchanekileyo, izilumkiso ezifanelekileyo kunye nemigaqo-nkqubo efanelekileyo, ubomi obuninzi bungasindiswa,” utshilo uGqr. Cole, ofumene ibhaso lesayensi eliphezulu eIndiya kulo nyaka, iVigyan Yuva Shanti Swarup Bhatnagar Geologist Award. Unikele intetho enesihloko esithi 'Imozulu: Yintoni exhomekeke ebhalansi' kwiManorama Conclave eThiruvananthapuram ngoLwesihlanu.
UDkt. Cole uthe ngenxa yotshintsho lwemozulu, iiWestern Ghats kunye noLwandle lwaseArabia kumacala omabini eKerala ziye zaba ngathi ziidemon kunye neelwandle. “Imozulu ayitshintshi nje kuphela, itshintsha ngokukhawuleza,” utshilo. Isisombululo kuphela, utshilo, kukudala iKerala enobuhlobo nokusingqongileyo. “Kufuneka sigxile kwinqanaba le-panchayat. Iindlela, izikolo, izindlu, ezinye izibonelelo kunye nomhlaba wezolimo kufuneka zilungelelaniswe notshintsho lwemozulu,” utshilo.
Okokuqala, uthe, iKerala kufuneka yenze inethiwekhi yokujonga imozulu exineneyo nesebenzayo. Ngomhla wama-30 kuJulayi, umhla wokudilika komhlaba eWayanad, iSebe leMeteorological laseIndiya (IMD) kunye neKerala State Disaster Management Authority (KSDMA) bakhuphe iimephu ezimbini ezahlukeneyo zokulinganisa imvula. Ngokwemephu yeKSDMA, iWayanad ifumene imvula enkulu kakhulu (ngaphezulu kwe-115mm) kunye nemvula enkulu ngomhla wama-30 kuJulayi, nangona kunjalo, i-IMD inika ukufundwa okune okwahlukeneyo kweWayanad: imvula enkulu kakhulu, imvula enkulu, imvula ephakathi kunye nemvula encinci;
Ngokwemephu ye-IMD, uninzi lwezithili zaseThiruvananthapuram naseKollam zifumene imvula engaphantsi ukuya kwencinane kakhulu, kodwa i-KSDMA ibike ukuba ezi zithili zimbini zifumene imvula ephakathi. “Asinakukunyamezela oko kule mihla. Kufuneka senze inethiwekhi yokujonga imozulu exineneyo eKerala ukuze siqonde ngokuchanekileyo kwaye siqikelele imozulu,” utshilo uGqr. Kohl. “Olu lwazi kufuneka lufumaneke esidlangalaleni,” utshilo.
EKerala kukho isikolo rhoqo emva kweekhilomitha ezi-3. Ezi zikolo zinokuxhotyiswa ngezixhobo zokulawula imozulu. “Isikolo ngasinye sinokuxhotyiswa ngeegeyiji zemvula kunye nee-thermometers zokulinganisa ubushushu. Ngo-2018, esinye isikolo sajonga imvula kunye namanqanaba amanzi kuMlambo iMeenachil saza sasindisa iintsapho ezingama-60 ezisezantsi komlambo ngokuqikelela izikhukula,” utshilo.
Ngokufanayo, izikolo zingasebenzisa amandla elanga kwaye zibe neetanki zokuqokelela amanzi emvula. “Ngale ndlela, abafundi abayi kwazi nje kuphela ngotshintsho lwemozulu, kodwa baya kululungiselela,” utshilo. Idatha yabo iya kuba yinxalenye yenethiwekhi yokubeka esweni.
Nangona kunjalo, ukuqikelela izikhukula ezikhawulezileyo kunye nokudilika komhlaba kufuna ulungelelwaniso kunye nentsebenziswano yamasebe aliqela, afana ne-geology kunye ne-hydrology, ukuze kwenziwe iimodeli. “Singakwenza oku,” utshilo.
Rhoqo kwiminyaka elishumi, iimitha ezili-17 zomhlaba ziyalahleka. UGqr. Cole we-Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology uthe amanqanaba olwandle anyuke ngeemilimitha ezi-3 ngonyaka ukusukela ngo-1980, okanye iisentimitha ezi-3 ngeshumi leminyaka. Uthe nangona kubonakala kuncinci, ukuba ithambeka liyi-0.1 degrees kuphela, iimitha ezili-17 zomhlaba ziya kukhukuliseka. “Libali elifanayo elidala. Ngowama-2050, amanqanaba olwandle aya kunyuka ngeemilimitha ezi-5 ngonyaka,” utshilo.
Ngokufanayo, ukususela ngo-1980, inani leenkanyamba linyuke ngama-50 ekhulwini kwaye ixesha lazo linyuke ngama-80 ekhulwini, utshilo. Ngeli xesha, inani lemvula enkulu liphindwe kathathu. Uthe ngo-2050, imvula iya kunyuka nge-10% kwiqondo ngalinye lokunyuka kwamaqondo obushushu eCelsius.
Impembelelo yoTshintsho lokusetyenziswa koMhlaba Uphononongo kwiTrivandrum's Urban Heat Island (UHI) (igama elisetyenziselwa ukuchaza iindawo zasezidolophini ezishushu kuneendawo zasemaphandleni) lufumanise ukuba amaqondo obushushu kwiindawo ezakhiweyo okanye emahlathini anekhonkrithi aya kunyuka aye kuma-30.82 degrees Celsius xa kuthelekiswa nama-25.92 degrees Celsius. ngo-1988 - ukutsiba okuphantse kube ngama-5 degrees kwiminyaka engama-34.
Uphononongo oluvezwe nguGqr. Cole lubonise ukuba kwiindawo ezivulekileyo ubushushu buza kunyuka ukusuka kwi-25.92 degrees Celsius ngo-1988 ukuya kwi-26.8 degrees Celsius ngo-2022. Kwiindawo ezinezityalo, ubushushu buye banyuka ukusuka kwi-26.61 degrees Celsius ukuya kwi-30.82 degrees Celsius ngo-2022, ukunyuka kwe-4.21 degrees.
Ubushushu bamanzi bubhalwe kwi-25.21 degrees Celsius, bungaphantsi kancinci kune-25.66 degrees Celsius ebhalwe ngo-1988, ubushushu babuyi-24.33 degrees Celsius;
UGqr. Cole uthe amaqondo obushushu aphezulu naphantsi kwisiqithi esishushu sedolophu ayanda rhoqo ngeli xesha. “Olu tshintsho ekusetyenzisweni komhlaba lunokwenza umhlaba ube sesichengeni sokudilika komhlaba kunye nezikhukula ezikhawulezileyo,” utshilo.
UGqr. Cole uthe ukujongana notshintsho lwemozulu kufuna icebo elinamacala amabini: ukunciphisa nokulungelelanisa. “Ukunciphisa utshintsho lwemozulu ngoku kungaphaya kwamandla ethu. Oku kufuneka kwenziwe kwinqanaba lehlabathi. IKerala kufuneka igxile ekuhlengahlengiseni. I-KSDMA ichonge iindawo ezishushu. Nikeza izixhobo zokulawula imozulu kuyo yonke i-panchayat,” utshilo.
Ixesha lokuthumela: Sep-23-2024