Indlela yophando oluhambelanayo oluhlakaniphileyo ukuqinisekisa ukubandakanywa ekuyileni inkqubo yokubeka esweni kunye neyokulumkisa ukubonelela ngolwazi lwesilumkiso kwangethuba ukunciphisa iingozi zeentlekele. Ityala: Iingozi zeNdalo kunye neSayensi yeNkqubo yoMhlaba (2023). I-DOI: 10.5194/nhess-23-667-2023
Ukubandakanya uluntu ekuphuhliseni inkqubo yokulumkisa kwangethuba ngexesha langempela kunokunceda ekunciphiseni impembelelo edla ngokutshabalalisa izikhukula ebantwini nakwipropati—ingakumbi kwimimandla yeentaba apho iziganeko zamanzi ezigqithisileyo ziyingxaki “embi”, uphando olutsha lutyhila.
Izikhukula ezikhawulezileyo ziya zisanda kwaye zonakalisa ubomi kunye nempahla yabantu abasengozini, kodwa abaphandi bakholelwa ukuba ukusebenzisa indlela ye-SMART (jonga umfanekiso ongentla) ukunxibelelana nabo bahlala kwezo ndawo kuya kunceda ukubonisa ngcono umngcipheko ozayo wezikhukula.
Izazinzulu zikholelwa ekubeni ukudibanisa idatha yemozulu nolwazi malunga nendlela abantu abahlala kwaye basebenza ngayo kwiindawo ezinjalo, kuya kunceda abaphathi beengozi zeentlekele, iingcali zamanzi, kunye neenjineli ukuba bayile iindlela ezingcono zokuphakamisa isilumkiso ngaphambi kwezikhukula ezinkulu.
Xa ipapasha iziphumo zayo kwi-Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, iqela lophando lamazwe ngamazwe elikhokelwa yiYunivesithi yaseBirmingham likholelwa ukuba ukudibanisa isayensi, imigaqo-nkqubo kunye neendlela ezikhokelwa luluntu lwasekuhlaleni kuya kunceda ekwenzeni izigqibo zokusingqongileyo ezifanelana ngcono nemeko yasekuhlaleni.
Umbhali-mbhali uTahmina Yasmin, iPostdoctoral Research Fellow kwiYunivesithi yaseBirmingham, uthe, "Ingxaki 'embi' yingxaki yentlalo okanye yenkcubeko enzima okanye engenakwenzeka ukuyisombulula ngenxa yendalo yayo entsonkothileyo nedibeneyo. Sikholelwa ukuba ukudibanisa isayensi yentlalo kunye nedatha yemozulu kuya kunceda ekuchongeni iindawo ezingaziwayo zephazili xa kuyilwa inkqubo yesilumkiso kwangethuba.
"Ukunxibelelana ngcono noluntu kunye nokuhlalutya izinto zentlalo ezichongiweyo luluntu olusemngciphekweni—umzekelo, ukuhlala ngokungekho mthethweni ecaleni komlambo okanye iindawo ezihlwempuzekileyo—kuya kunceda abo baqhuba imigaqo-nkqubo ukuba baqonde ngcono iingozi ezibangelwa zezi meko zigqithisileyo zamanzi kunye nokucwangcisa impendulo kunye nokunciphisa izikhukula okubonelela uluntu ngokhuseleko oluphuculweyo."
Abaphandi bathi ukusebenzisa indlela ye-SMART kunceda abenzi bomgaqo-nkqubo ukuba baveze ubuthathaka kunye nomngcipheko woluntu, ngokusebenzisa iseti yemigaqo esisiseko:
● S= Ukuqondana ngomngcipheko okuqinisekisa ukuba iqela ngalinye labantu kuluntu limelwe kwaye kusetyenziswa iindlela ezahlukeneyo zokuqokelela idatha.
● M= Ukubeka iliso kwiingozi kunye nokuseka iinkqubo zokulumkisa ezakha ukuthembana kunye nokutshintshiselana ngolwazi olubalulekileyo lomngcipheko—okunceda ukugcina inkqubo yokuqikelela.
● A= UkwakhaAukuqaphela ngoqeqesho kunye nemisebenzi yokuphuhlisa amandla efaka ukuqonda ulwazi lwemozulu yexesha langempela kunye nolwazi lwesilumkiso sezikhukula.
● RT= Ibonisa ucwangciso lwangaphambi kwexeshaRizenzo zokuphendula kwiTixesha kunye nezicwangciso ezipheleleyo zolawulo lweentlekele kunye nokufuduka ngokusekelwe kwisilumkiso esenziwe yi-EWS.
Umbhali-mbhali uDavid Hannah, uNjingalwazi weHydrology kunye noSihlalo we-UNESCO kwiSayensi yaManzi kwiYunivesithi yaseBirmingham, uthe, "Ukuphuhlisa ukuthembana koluntu kwiiarhente zikarhulumente kunye nokuqikelela okugxile kubuchwepheshe, ngelixa kusetyenziswa iindlela ezikhokelwa luluntu zokuqokelela ulwazi kwiindawo zeentaba ezinqongopheleyo kwedatha kubalulekile ekukhuseleni abantu abasengozini."
"Ukusebenzisa le ndlela ye-SMART ukubandakanya uluntu ekuphuhliseni iinkqubo zokulumkisa kwangethuba ezibandakanyayo nezinenjongo ngokuqinisekileyo kuya kunceda ekuphuhliseni amandla, ukuziqhelanisa, kunye nokuqina xa kujongwe iimeko ezigqithisileyo zamanzi, ezifana nezikhukula kunye nembalela, kunye nokwanda kokungaqiniseki phantsi kotshintsho lwehlabathi."
Iinkcukacha ezithe xaxe:UTahmina Yasmin et al, Unxibelelwano olufutshane: Ukubandakanya ekuyileni inkqubo yokulumkisa kwangethuba yokumelana nezikhukula, Iingozi zeNdalo kunye neSayensi yeNkqubo yoMhlaba (2023).I-DOI: 10.5194/nhess-23-667-2023
Ibonelelwe nguIYunivesithi yaseBirmingham
Ixesha lokuthumela: Epreli-10-2023