Utshintsho oluqhutywa yimozulu kungeniso lwamanzi ahlaziyekileyo lubonakaliswe ukuba luchaphazela ubume kunye nomsebenzi wenkqubo yendalo engaselunxwemeni. Siye savavanya utshintsho kwiimpembelelo zokuqukuqela komlambo kwiinkqubo zonxweme zaseMntla-ntshona wePatagonia (NWP) kumashumi eminyaka akutshanje (1993–2021) ngohlalutyo oludityanisiweyo lwexesha elide lokuqukuqela kwamaxesha, ukulinganisa kokusetyenziswa kwamanzi, ukufunyanwa kwesathelayithi kunye nedatha yohlaziyo kwakhona malunga neemeko zomphezulu wolwandle (ubushushu, ukuvuthuza, kunye nobutyuwa). Ukuncipha okubonakalayo kokuhamba komjelo okuncinci ukunqumla ummandla odibanisa iziseko zemilambo ezintandathu ezinkulu kubonakala kwimilinganiselo yeveki, ngenyanga, kunye namaxesha onyaka. Olu tshintsho luye lwavakaliswa kakhulu kwiidisins ezisemantla ezixubeneyo (umzekelo, uMlambo iPuelo) kodwa zibonakala ziqhubela phambili ukuya emazantsi ukuya kwimilambo ephawulwe ngolawulo lwe-nival. Kumaleko amabini olwandle angaphakathi akufuphi, amanzi acuthiweyo acuthiweyo ahambelana ne-halocline engekho nzulu kunye nokwanda kwamaqondo obushushu angaphezulu kumntla wePatagonia. Iziphumo zethu zigxininisa ifuthe elivela ngokukhawuleza lemilambo kumlambo omeleneyo namanzi onxweme kwi-NWP. Siyiqaqambisa imfuneko yokuphonononga inkqubo yendalo enqamlezileyo, uqikelelo, ukuthomalalisa kunye nezicwangciso eziliqili zokuziqhelanisa nemozulu eguqukayo, kunye nolawulo lwezikeyi oluhambelanayo oluhambelanayo lweenkqubo ezinikezela ngokubaleka kumanzi olwandle aselunxwemeni.
Imilambo ngowona mthombo ungundoqo wokungenisa amanzi acocekileyo elizwekazi kwiilwandle1. Kwiinkqubo zaselunxwemeni ezivaleleke kancinci, imilambo ingumqhubi obalulekileyo weenkqubo zokujikeleza2 kunye nebhulorho phakathi kwezinto eziphilayo zasemhlabeni kunye nezaselwandle, ukuthutha izondlo, izinto eziphilayo, kunye nentlenga ezongezelela ezo zisuka kunxweme nolwandle oluvulekileyo3. Uphononongo lwakutsha nje lunike ingxelo yotshintsho kumthamo kunye nexesha lokufakwa kwamanzi ahlaziyekileyo kulwandlekazi lonxweme4. Uhlalutyo lwexesha kunye neemodeli ze-hydrological zibonisa iipateni ezahlukeneyo ze-spatiotemporal5, ukusuka, ngokomzekelo, ukusuka ekunyukeni okunamandla kwamanzi ahlambulukileyo aphuma kwiindawo eziphezulu ze-latitudes6-ngenxa yokunyuka komkhenkce onyibilikayo-ukuya kwiindlela ezihlayo kwi-middle-latitudes ngenxa yokwanda kwembalela ye-hydrological7. Nokuba leliphi icala kunye nobukhulu beentsingiselo ezisandula ukuxelwa, utshintsho lwemozulu luchongwe njengoyena mqhubi wenkqubo yokutshintsha kwamanzi8, ngelixa iimpembelelo kumanzi onxweme kunye nenkqubo yendalo eyixhasayo kusafuneka ihlolwe kwaye iqondwe ngokupheleleyo9. Utshintsho lwexesha lokuhamba komsinga, oluchatshazelwa kukutshintsha kwemozulu (ukutshintsha iipatheni zemvula kunye nokunyuka kwamaqondo obushushu) kunye noxinzelelo lwe-anthropogenic olufana namadama ombane wamanzi okanye amadama10,11, ukuphambuka kokunkcenkceshela, kunye nokutshintsha kokusetyenziswa komhlaba12, kubangela umngeni ekuhlalutyweni iindlela zokungenisa amanzi acocekileyo13,14. Ngokomzekelo, uphando oluninzi lubonise ukuba iindawo ezinokwahluka okuphezulu kwamahlathi zibonisa ukomelela okukhulu kwe-ecosystem ngexesha lembalela kunezo zilawulwa ngamasimi amahlathi okanye ezolimo15,16. Embindini wobubanzi, ukuqonda iimpembelelo zokutshintsha kwemozulu kwixesha elizayo kulwandlekazi lonxweme ngokususa iimpembelelo zokutshintsha kwemozulu kunye nokuphazamiseka kwe-anthropogenic yendawo kufuna uqwalaselo oluvela kwiinkqubo zereferensi ezinotshintsho olungephi ukuze utshintsho kulawulo lwamanzi lunokohlulwa kukuphazamiseka kwabantu ekuhlaleni.
I-Western Patagonia (> 41°S kunxweme lwePasifiki yoMzantsi Melika) ivela njengomnye wale mimandla igcinwe kakuhle, apho uphando oluqhubekayo luyimfuneko ekubekeni iliso nokukhusela ezi nkqubo zendalo. Kulo mmandla, imilambo equkuqelayo ngokukhululekileyo isebenzisana ne-geomorphology yonxweme entsonkothileyo ukubumba enye yezona ndawo zibanzi kakhulu emhlabeni17,18. Ngenxa yokuba kude kwayo, iidike zemilambo yasePatagonia zihlala zingaphazamiseki ngokuphawulekayo, zinehlathi eliphakamileyo lemveli eli-19, ukuxinana kwabantu okuphantsi, kwaye ngokubanzi azinawo amadama, amadama, kunye neziseko zonkcenkceshelo. Ukuba sesichengeni kwezi nkqubo zaselunxwemeni kutshintsho lwendalo esingqongileyo kuxhomekeke ikakhulu, ngokongezwa, ekusebenzisaneni kwazo nemithombo yamanzi ahlaziyekileyo. Ukufakwa kwamanzi amatsha kumanzi onxweme loMntla-ntshona wePatagonia (NWP; 41–46 ºS), kubandakanywa imvula ethe ngqo kunye nokuhamba komlambo, asebenzisana nobuninzi bamanzi olwandle, ingakumbi ityuwa ephezulu ye-Subantarctic Water (SAAW). Oku ke, kuphembelela iipatheni zokujikeleza, uhlaziyo lwamanzi, kunye nokuphuma komoya20 ngokuveliswa kwemithamo yetyuwa eyomeleleyo, eneqondo eliphezulu lokuguquguquka kwamaxesha onyaka kunye ne-heterogeneity yendawo kwi-halocline21. Ukusebenzisana phakathi kwale mithombo mibini yamanzi kukwachaphazela ukubunjwa koluntu lweplanktonic22, luchaphazela ukukhanya kokukhanya23, kwaye kukhokelela ekuxutyweni kwe-Nitrogen kunye ne-Phosphorus concentrations kwi-SAAW24 kunye nokunikezelwa kwe-orthosilicate ephuculweyo kwi-surface layer25,26. Ngaphezu koko, igalelo lamanzi ahlaziyekileyo liphumela kwi-gradient eyomeleleyo ethe nkqo ye-oksijini enyibilikileyo (DO) kula manzi e-estuarine, kunye nomgangatho ophezulu ubonisa ngokubanzi i-DO concentration (6-8 mL L-1)27.
Ungenelelo olulinganiselweyo olubonakalisa iziseko zelizwekazi lasePatagonia luyachasana nokusetyenziswa kakhulu konxweme, ingakumbi kushishino lwezamanzi, icandelo loqoqosho olungundoqo eChile. Ngoku ibekwe phakathi kwabavelisi abaphezulu bezilwanyana zasemanzini, iChile ikwindawo yesibini ngobukhulu ekuthengiseni ngaphandle isalmon kunye netrout, kwaye ingumthengisi omkhulu wembaza28. Ukulima kweSalmon kunye nembaza, okukhoyo ngoku ca. 2300 iindawo zonikezelo kunye nommandla opheleleyo we-ca. I-24,000 yeehektare kummandla, ivelisa ixabiso elibalulekileyo loqoqosho kumazantsi eChile29. Olu phuhliso alukho ngaphandle kweempembelelo zokusingqongileyo, ngakumbi kwimeko yokulima isalmon, umsebenzi onegalelo ngezondlo zangaphandle kwezi ndawo zendalo30. Kwakhona kubonakaliswe ukuba sengozini kakhulu kwiinguqu ezinxulumene nemozulu31,32.
Kumashumi eminyaka akutshanje, amaphononongo aqhutywe kwi-NWP achaze ukuhla kwamanzi angenawo amanzi33 kwaye aqikelela ukwehla kokuhamba kwamanzi ngexesha lasehlotyeni nasekwindla34, kunye nokwandiswa kwembalela yamanzi35. Olu tshintsho kungeniso lwamanzi ahlaziyekileyo lunempembelelo kwimilinganiselo yendalo esingqongileyo ekhawulezileyo kwaye luneziphumo eziphazamisayo kwi-ecosystem dynamics. Umzekelo, iimeko ezimbi kakhulu kumanzi aphezu konxweme ngexesha lembalela yasehlotyeni-ekwindla ziye zaxhaphaka, kwaye, kwezinye iimeko, ziye zachaphazela ishishini le-aquaculture nge-hypoxia36, ukwanda kwe-parasitism, kunye ne-algal blooms eyingozi32,37,38 (HABs).
Kumashumi eminyaka akutshanje, amaphononongo aqhutywe kwi-NWP achaze ukuhla kwamanzi angenawo amanzi33 kwaye aqikelela ukwehla kokuhamba kwamanzi ngexesha lasehlotyeni nasekwindla34, kunye nokwandiswa kwembalela yamanzi35. Olu tshintsho kungeniso lwamanzi ahlaziyekileyo lunempembelelo kwimilinganiselo yendalo esingqongileyo ekhawulezileyo kwaye luneziphumo eziphazamisayo kwi-ecosystem dynamics. Umzekelo, iimeko ezimbi kakhulu kumanzi aphezu konxweme ngexesha lembalela yasehlotyeni-ekwindla ziye zaxhaphaka, kwaye, kwezinye iimeko, ziye zachaphazela ishishini le-aquaculture nge-hypoxia36, ukwanda kwe-parasitism, kunye ne-algal blooms eyingozi32,37,38 (HABs).
Ulwazi lwangoku ngokuncipha kwamagalelo amanzi ahlaziyekileyo kuyo yonke i-NWP lusekwe kuhlalutyo lwe-hydrological metrics39, echaza iinkcukacha-manani okanye iipropathi eziguquguqukayo zoluhlu lwedatha ye-hydrologic ethathwe kwinani eliqingqiweyo leerekhodi zexesha elide kunye nokugubungela okuncinci kwendawo. Ngokuphathelele iimeko ezihambelanayo ze-hydrographic kumanzi echweba le-NWP okanye ulwandle olukufuphi nonxweme, azikho iirekhodi ezifumanekayo zexesha elide kwindawo. Ngenxa yokuba sesichengeni kwemisebenzi yentlalo-qoqosho yonxweme kwiimpembelelo zokutshintsha kwemozulu, ukwamkela indlela ebanzi yojongano lomhlaba nolwandle kulawulo kunye nokuziqhelanisa nokutshintsha kwemozulu kunyanzelekile40. Ukujongana nalo mngeni, sidibanise imodeli ye-hydrological (1990-2020) kunye nedatha evela kwisathelayithi kunye nohlaziyo kwakhona kwiimeko zolwandle (1993-2020). Le ndlela ineenjongo eziphambili ezimbini: (1) ukuvavanya iintsingiselo zembali kwiimetrikhi zamanzi kumyinge wommandla kunye (2) nokuphonononga iziphumo zolu tshintsho lwenkqubo yonxweme emeleneyo, ngakumbi malunga nobutyuwa bolwandle, ubushushu, kunye nokuqukuqela kolwandle.
Sinokubonelela ngeentlobo ezahlukeneyo ze-smart sensors ukujonga i-hydrology kunye nomgangatho wamanzi, wamkelekile ukubonisana.
Ixesha lokuposa: Sep-18-2024